In my book The Lights in the Tunnel, written back in 2009, I wrote:
“So our assumption is going to be that, at some point down the line, machines or computers will take over a great many of these people’s jobs. Not all of them, but a lot. Maybe 40 percent. Maybe half. ”
Turns out that wasn’t a bad guess, at least according to some researchers at the University of Oxford. Their best estimate is that 47% of U.S. jobs are susceptible to automation within the next two decades. PDF of the complete report is here.
Textile Factories returning to the U.S.–but without the workers – NY Times
Will Robots Kill — or Create — your Next Job? – FastCompany
Robots Fill New Roles at Work – PC World
On the Future of Moore’s Law:
Samsung Manufactures 3D Integrated Circuits – Forbes
4 thoughts on “47% of U.S. Jobs Could Be Automated with the Next Two Decades”
Do you think unemployment riots are coming fairly soon?
Personally I think something that drastic could only happen under two conditions: 1. Unemployment hits 25% or more. 2. The US government fails to act to ameliorate the high unemployment and lack of income. We’re not likely to see condition one for another 15 years or more. However, looking at the current state of the US government, I think it’s entirely possible that they would completely fail to act in the face of major social change.
Will these jobs survive?
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